广东油气商会

Guangdong Oil & Gas Association

The global LNG market has undergone a fundamental paradigm shift from"cost optimization" to "security of supply" under thesustained impact of US-Iran tensions, causing the anticipated cycle of loosesupply to be drastically postponed. Currently, the global LNG supply-demandlandscape is facing unprecedented complexity and tightness due to geopoliticaldisruptions.

On the supply side, the stability of theMiddle East—a core production region—has been severely compromised. Beyond thedamage to Qatar's core LNG facilities and the resulting substantial long-termcapacity deficit, the persistent disruption of navigation in the Strait ofHormuz has emerged as the market's greatest source of uncertainty, given thatthis critical artery accounts for nearly 20% of global LNG trade. While theUnited States and Australia maintain full-capacity operations, their sparecapacity lacks the elasticity to bridge the Middle Eastern supply gap, and theramp-up of new production has fallen short of expectations. Meanwhile, emergingexport hubs in Africa are developing but remain constrained by inadequateinfrastructure and geopolitical risks, making them unable to serve as effectivesubstitutes in the short term. In this context, the phased breakthroughsachieved by Canada's LNG Canada project have positioned it as a coreincremental source and a key growth asset in the global drive for gas sourcediversification.